A look into the analyst’s forecasting process

December 19, 2016  | Subscribers Only

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Ad market dynamics can be explained both in microscopic and macroscopic terms, i.e. by considering the individual key players in the market (from the online, TV and other media), and by accounting for the effects that the overall market conditions and sentiment respectively. The latter has a more global effect, affecting the total investments in the media sector (a top-down approach). The forecasting models at IHS incorporate both ways to obtain a holistic understanding of the market dynamics from the top-down approach and from the down-up approach. This study aims to help the top-down modelling process by a systematic way of forecasting the total growth rate of the ad market for given forecasted economic metrics that are provided independently from the IHS economic global research.

Highlights:

Segmenting the data in fact reflects the acceleration of the ad market growth as a multiplier effect in relatively high GDP growth rate conditions. In other words, advertisers tend to exceed in the rate of spending the economic growth rate at high growth periods. This is particularly true after a period that the economy (and the ad market) contracts and is then followed by a high growth period. The underspent behaviour in the contracting period is compensated in a high growth time causing the effect of accelerated ad growth rate.

In this report:

USA, Colombia, Malaysia, China

List of Tables and Charts:

  • GDP and ad growth rates USA linear
  • GDP and ad growth rates USA segmented 
  • GDP and ad growth rates Malysia segmented
  • GDP and ad growth rates Colombia segmented
  • GDP and ad growth rates China segmented

Number of pages: 6

Number of Tables and Charts: 5

 

Research by Market
Media & Advertising
Category
Advertising
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