Market Insight

Japanese rental BD sales fail to compensate for decline in DVD

January 20, 2015  | Subscribers Only

David Scott David Scott Associate Director – Research and Analysis, Service Providers & Platforms

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  • Total rental video shipments -6.9% in period from January to November 2014
  • BD rental shipments and revenues up 3.5% and 1.8% respectively
  • Shipment of rental DVDs down 7.6%; DVD revenues down 11.8%


An increase in Japanese Blu-ray Disc (BD) rental sales for the period from January to November 2014 was not enough to compensate for the continuing decline in the rental DVD sector according to IHS analysis of the latest available data from the Japan Video Software Association (JVA). JVA indicate combined BD and DVD unit sales fell 6.9% to just under 26.0 million rental discs in the period from January to November 2014 compared with a year earlier whilst revenues declined 10.9% to ¥54.4 billion ($557 million) over the same period. The JVA results are in line with IHS figures for full-year 2014 and consequently we have made only minor adjustments. IHS forecast 35.6 million rental discs shipments to the trade for full-year 2014, generating ¥73.8 billion ($756 million). This reflects IHS analysis of the JVA data, grossed up to reflect the total market.

The number of BD units shipped to rental outlets in Japan between January and November 2014 increased 3.5% to nearly 1.8 million compared with the same period in 2013. This result indicates slower than expected demand for BD rental in Japan. As a result, IHS has lowered its Japanese rental BD figure from 2.6 million to 2.4 million units. JVA members’ BD revenue from the sector increased 1.8% to ¥4.0 billion ($41.0 million) over the same period. IHS has revised its Japanese rental BD revenue forecast downward for full-year 2014 in light of the slower than expected demand. Annual revenues from the sector have declined from ¥5.0 billion ($51.1 million) to ¥4.8 billion ($49.0 million).

Meanwhile, JVA member rental DVD shipments fell 7.6% to nearly 24.2 million in the period from January to November 2014 compared with the previous year. Revenues declined 11.8% to ¥50.4 billion ($516 million) dragged down by a 4.5% fall in the average trade price of a rental DVD to ¥2,084 ($21.34). The result was better than expected and as such, IHS has revised upward its rental DVD sales full-year figure for 2014 from 32.6 million to 33.2 million whilst revenues from the sector increase slightly to ¥70.0 billion ($707 million).

At consumer level, IHS has revised upward its forecast for consumer spending on rental video software from ¥215 billion ($2.2 billion) to ¥230 billion ($2.4 billion) for full-year 2014 due to a better than expected result in the rental DVD sector. We expect DVD rental spending to reach ¥207 billion ($2.1 billion) in 2014, up from ¥192 billion ($2.0 billion), whilst consumer spending on BD rental is slightly lower at ¥22.6 billion ($231 million), down from ¥23.2 billion ($238 million) over the same period.

Subscribers should note that our take on the performance of the Japanese rental video market in 2014 will follow shortly after our review of the JVA results for December 2014. IHS expects the JVA to publish its year-end rental video results in February 2015.


Asia Pacific Japan
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